Wishful thinking or new science? A little boomlet of data showing that average global temperatures DROPPED last year, with the largest snowpack across North America in 30-odd years and the thickest Arctic sea ice since 1966. Snow in Baghdad, Jerusalem, Greece…

One researcher suggests that the drop in global temperature in 2007 was so great that it WIPES OUT the measured INCREASE in temperature over the previous century that was the closer for the IPCC report.

All of this might be flat-earth-ism. But the stories haven’t escaped the notice of US opinion formers as the election gets up to full speed - expect to hear a lot more about it next week. I predict over the weekend it’ll hit the Irish media, maybe next week. The US Chamber of Commerce has picked it up. FOX News has picked it up:

Now there is word that all four major global temperature tracking outlets have released data showing that temperatures have dropped significantly over the last year. California meteorologist Anthony Watts says the amount of cooling ranges from 65-hundredths of a degree Centigrade to 75-hundreds of a degree.

That is said to be a value large enough to erase nearly all the global warming recorded over the past 100 years. It is reportedly the single fastest temperature change ever recorded — up or down.

The insider’s insider guide, Politico’s Playbook, has picked it up, noting that the Chamber has posted about it, predicting Global Cooling as broadcast bait today: “BOOKER/PRODUCER/TALKRADIO ALERT”.

The basic theory is that sunspot activity has as much to do with Earth’s temperatures as anything else. We appear to be heading into a marked dropoff in this solar stuff, which - goes the theory - could see a sustained drop in temps. Sounds fine until you realise that real data on solar activity is even more recent than accurate temperature readings around the world - meaning a smaller data set.

On the same day, there’s a must-read column in the Washington Post by Robert Novak about who John McCain might pick as his vice presidential running mate. The smart betting has been on Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, but Novak hints otherwise, largely because Pawlenty’s been out in front on climate change, specifically requiring a change in fuel mix to boost clean renewable energy. Now the governors of coal and oil-rich states have pushed back, possibly scuppering his chance:

As co-chairman of the association’s energy committee (with Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, who gave the Democratic response to President Bush’s State of the Union address this year), Pawlenty proposed state goals for reducing carbon dioxide emissions. But at a “governors-only” session that opened the meeting on Saturday, Pawlenty encountered adamant opposition. Barbour led the way for governors from energy-producing states, including Republican Rick Perry of Texas and Democrat Steve Beshear of Kentucky. The issue of greenhouse gases was “set aside,” Pawlenty told me, “because we realized there was no consensus.”

McCain, who has co-sponsored a global warming bill with his friend and supporter Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.), got more of the same over dinner with Republican governors that night. They made clear that energy was a major issue and that they hoped McCain would be sensitive to energy producers. By all accounts, the prospective presidential nominee was receptive.

That same day, the Wall Street Journal ran a column by Minneapolis-St. Paul talk show host Jason Lewis critiquing Pawlenty’s record — including renewable energy mandates — as too liberal for him to be McCain’s vice president.

Here’s what I’m thinking. If this summer isn’t very hot, we’re going to see a concerted campaign from some very well-funded energy interests - led by but not confined to the US - to pushback on the climate change consensus and try to derail efforts to get the US into the mainstream on this.

Pawlenty offers his own pushback. It ain’t about tree-hugging: “As for Lewis’s remarks, ‘He doesn’t think I’m conservative because I’m a proponent of clean energy, and, from my standpoint, we’ve got a national security issue.’”

In other words, whatever the temperature is, the West is still sending money to places that are sending back madrassa-demented “martyrdom operations”.

But the idea of slipping back into climate change denial will look pretty tempting in an election year.