Crossposted from Brassneck (the wonky poliblog founded by the Sluggeriffic Mick Fealty on the Telegraph website - and by the way, Brassneck was recently named a top 10 “most influential” of Brit blogs), where I’m an occasional contributor. With some extra at the end, just for you:

Ireland’s referendum vote over the Lisbon Treaty had been trending towards the sceptics in recent weeks, with farmers sending signals that they so hate Peter Mandelson, EU trade commissioner (and former Northern Ireland minister), that they might join a coalition of Sinn Fein nationalists and libertarian Eurosceptics in opposing the treaty, prompting outgoing Bertie Ahern to predict “disaster” if Ireland voted no (though he might have been kidding). In his maiden speech as Taoiseach, Brian Cowen said that Lisbon, in his words “critically important to our strategic interest, our national interest”, would be the “first priority” of his new administration.

A poll out today is being presented as evidence that momentum for the ‘no’ side has stalled. Support for the treaty had been in freefall, dropping from 43% in February to 35% in April. The ‘Yes’ side has gained three points, according to today’s Red C poll in the Business Post. The ‘No’ side fell three points from 31% to 28%.

In more bad news for ‘No’ advocates, a separate poll (a real poll, not a Sindo makey-uppey one) puts support for Fianna Fail at 46%, five points better than their election performance 12 months ago, while support for Sinn Fein has dropped to 2%. Will a Cowen honeymoon carry over til June? Watch that consumer confidence index in a couple of weeks to see if the feel-good factor extends beyond Co Offaly…

In any case, take a closer look and the picture is more ambiguous. While support for the Treaty, which has the backing of all the major political parties bar Sinn Fein, as well as big business and some — but not all — trade unions, has improved, the changes are within the margin of error of the poll.

The most important number is the undecideds, who are at 34%. With 80% of voters - yes, no and undecided - having no idea what the treaty actually says, turnout is guaranteed to be low.

Neither the Yes nor No campaigns has yet figured out how to really make Lisbon about the sharply worsening economy. Last week the furniture retailer Habitat abruptly quit Ireland, citing skyrocketing costs and rent coupled with plummeting consumer spending, particularly related to the slump in the housing market.

The side which successfully argues that Lisbon is bad/good for the Irish economy has a better chance of winning over worried undecideds. Both sides have tried, but have yet to crystallise the message or own the issue. Abstractions about consoldiated corporate tax bases don’t make it real, nor does vague waffle about “strategic interest”. The frames tried out so far have included, from the No side, “strength” - playing on Ireland’s loss of an automatic commissioner; and, from the Yes side, “national interest”, which has a poor spokesman in the consummate provincial thug, Dick Roche. (Oh and that bizarre Lucinda Creighton flirtation with anti-Americanism.)

The abrupt retreat from Ireland of furniture retailer Habitat is this week’s high-profile worry, but it won’t be the last.

Will the Lisbon Treaty threaten Irish prosperity by endangering our magnetically low corporation tax, or secure it by…what, exactly, in 15 words or less?

Message-meisters on both sides take note: It’s the economy, stupid.

Haven’t seen the entries from, ahem, pro-Lisbon video competition from Labour just yet…we’ll looking forward to checking on that later today and who seems in contention.