David Cameron has done it again. New Labour last night had one of the worst by-election results in history. Boris Johnson’s London mayoralty left an open seat in deep-blue Oxfordshire, and Labour wasn’t expected to do better than third in losing the contest in Henley. But coming in FIFTH, behind the British National Party? Labour lost its deposit. That’s how bad.
As mentioned earlier, Gordon Brown is leading New Labour straight into the desert - and nary a man or woman among his lieutenants willing to step up and take him out before the cataclysm. But the collapse wouldn’t have happened without David Cameron.
He detoxified the Tory brand, got them past (just about) their hangups over 20-year-old issues, and seems like the fresh-faced man of the moment. Without a plausible place to go instead of Labour, the public mood would simply continue to darken, but into apathy, not revolt.
Nowhere on the Irish political scene is there an analagous figure to Cameron, which makes comparisons between the impressively disastrous start of The Incredible Sulk and that of Gordon Brown somewhat less than perfect. Fianna Fail can’t lose if no one else is in a position to win. And right now, Enda Kenny has managed to get FG’s numbers down to 23%. This isn’t an endorsement of FF. It’s an indictment of FG’s failure to offer a credible alternative. Can they fix that problem?
The superb John Drennan put it this way a couple of weeks ago:
Were David Cameron’s Tories six points behind Gordon Brown’s Labour, they would be at war with each other. But like ‘weaker’ GAA counties such as Mayo, Fine Gael are so used to defeat it subconsciously prefers the respectability of a narrow loss.
More saliently, if you’re wondering why the Lisbon debacle and the economic malaise gripping the country have not - yet - made a dent in the poll standings of Fianna Fail, the answer is at least in part, where else are the voters gonna go?
If the whispers in the wind - very faint, but more this week than in months - are true, Fine Gael may be finally coming to the same conclusion. Enda may be around to lead FG into the local elections in 12 months. But it’s hard to see him staying around longer than that. And quite possibly a lot sooner.
For Fine Gael to have a plausible shot at breaking through the public’s sense of cynicism existential dread about politics, it will need a leader that fills the same role as Cameron has for the Tories. Somebody who can embody credible change, who can capture the disaffected Pope’s Children and start looking for ways to reshape the political and media terrain, then take advantage of government missteps while building a new brand.
Who could play the transformational Cameron role for FG?
Some candidates, in the order of potential ability to transform FG:
Simon Coveney. (7-1 looks like good value from Paddy Power) He’s been mentioned in the past. Pros: He’s got nous on key issues like energy and broadband. He’s new-gen, but with merchant prince pedigree.
Cons: He’ll need to improve his debating skills and show he’s ruthless enough. Best way would to absolutely take out an opponent in a medium-profile debate, while keeping a cool, wry smile on his face. Hard to do. The environmental crisis in Cork Harbour may present an opening.
John Deasy. (20-1) Won himself few friends by throwing Enda under the bus before the election. But every palace coup needs someone to go first.
Pros: Smart. Outspoken. Saw the stirrings of the GOP takeover of Congress.
Cons: Isn’t afraid to tell you he knows that. Connected to Washington Republicans (I’m told that can be a drag on your popularity these days.)
Brian Hayes (5-1). Vocally backed Enda this week after the poll results.
Pros: Proven vote-getter. Affable. Sensible.
Cons: Meh.
Denis Naughten. (7-2)
Pro: A scientist background would be an interesting choice. Perhaps would deal more in facts than in wishful thinking.
Con: Immigration is not an issue I’d want responsibility for right now.
Now, candidates that would be a whole lot more of the same, with similar (dismal) results for FG:
Richard Bruton. Another lovely man.
Pros: Utterly sound on fiscal prudence. Refused before the election 2007 to enter the stamp duty sweepstakes when pressed by Tribune Business reporters at my direction. Even though it would have been a (marginal) vote-getter.
Cons: Utterly too nice a guy.
The main question in front of Fine Gael has to be, is it in them to pick a winner, or merely the common denominator who will offend the fewst number of party factions?
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10 responses so far ↓
1 JC Skinner // Jun 27, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Stupid odds on Brian Hayes, though one doesn’t doubt that Fine Gael could just be stupid enough to elect him leader.
As an overt neo-unionist, he’s entirely unelectable by the 26 counties electorate. Think John Bruton, only in a bowler and sash.
It would be fascinating to see a smart, ballsy bruiser like Deasy take over, if only for the Dail fireworks that would ensue when he went head to head with Cowen.
But sadly he’s way too hated within the old-skool blueshirts.
I entirely disagree that Naughten would have anything other than a further downward effect on the FG vote. I can’t see the transformative element you see in him whatsoever, Richard.
Coveney, as I’ve said before, is the likely inheritor if FG did grow the necessaries to dump Unelectable Enda fast, it’s likely they would plump for either Bruton or Coveney.
Again, contra your good self, I think Richard Bruton has the capacity to be an excellent opposition leader. I could easily see him wiping the floor with the Taoiseach in the Dail, for example.
But if they did go for Coveney, he would be the closest analogy to a Cameron, which given FG admiration for all things Tory, might just sway them in his direction.
He’s smart, got the lineage, looks telegenic, unites plenty of the party behind him and is an able performer.
Has he got Cameron’s vision thing down? Hard to say. But he’s probably the best they’ve got.
2 Richard // Jun 27, 2008 at 3:23 pm
JC wrote: “I think Richard Bruton has the capacity to be an excellent opposition leader. I could easily see him wiping the floor with the Taoiseach in the Dail, for example.”
I’m an admitted outsider in FG-watching. But I can’t think of a single example of Bruton “wiping the floor” with Cowen when Cowen was in finance. Can you point me to a couple of examples? Change my mind.
3 Dan Sullivan // Jun 27, 2008 at 8:14 pm
Richard, taking this analogy to its logical conclusion we should note that last summer just after Brown took over people were wondering how much longer Cameron would last as Brown seemed to sweep all before him while Cameron was battling his own over grammar schools and accused of bad judgement by being in Africa while there were floods in the UK. I think it would be entirely sensible for FG to review the situation next summer if the locals and Europeans panned out badly for us. As for where might a Cameron come from in FG in future, I might do a full post on that.
4 Sarah // Jun 27, 2008 at 9:01 pm
Richard, One of Fg’s biggest problems is their total lack of self-confidence. They panic every time someone slags off a new policy and end up apologising for it. They panic when their leaders start to take a hit and dump them. So why should voters have confidence in them when their own front bench doesn’t?
FF NEVER apologise and support the leader 100% even as they’re being carted off to jail (well, practically). What FG need to do is show confidence instead of panicking and throwing Enda overboard. He wasn’t the best choice. Coveney is too inexperienced. Richard is too gentile. O’Reilly is raw. Hayes is….I dunno..needs to be a minister (FG’s other problem - lack of ministerial experience!) which KENNY has.
They should get on with the job and attack attack attack, FF, not Enda.
oh and Enda should take a long holiday. He looks wrecked. And dump the advisors. They haven’t trained him, they’ve drained him of his personality. Classic mistake.
He has no confidence in himself. He has to work on that….
5 EWI // Jun 28, 2008 at 1:25 am
Connected to Washington Republicans (I’m told that can be a drag on your popularity these days.)
I thought as much, when he picked up the sought-after *coughcough* Waghorne endorsement for FG leader a year or two back
6 Richard // Jun 28, 2008 at 8:49 am
Dan & Sarah - I admire the stick-to-it ness and loyalty to Enda. But I think the poll numbers speak for themselves. Enda couldn’t put FG over the top in 2007. (And why reprising Gingrich’s 94 Contract with America, right down to the “this pen” crap, didn’t result in mass strategist seppuku I’ll never know.)
His performance since - his public performance - has been dismal. I know he’s a bright guy. I know he’s good guy. But those aren’t enough.
1. He hasn’t redefined (or just defined) the FG brand. I’ve been here 8 years, am a reasonably good observer and can’t tell you in a nutshell what FG’s values are contra FF. I feel like they avoid fights and strategic decisions, which just makes them seem like less competent versions of FF who are at bottom quite happy being number 2.
2. Enda never defined himself. He’s been in the Dail more than 3 decades, through EU accession, inflation, emigration, the bust and the boom and the bust. Yet he still seems awkward. His ‘experience’ has done him few favours.
I don’t know if any of these other guys have the stuff. But it’s hard to argue that Enda hasn’t been given every chance at this point, and always come up short (if only just). This isn’t a new problem, Sarah. The advisers be damned, you can’t spend 35 years in a legislature and not be drained of authenticity and personality. And nobody can make you want to attack.
You have to, at some level, enjoy the combat without letting that enjoyment turn you into Dick Roche. Your tactical choice of attack or not has to be based on cold logic, then pursued with ruthless energy.
The country has serious problems. Collectively the front benches of all three parties look totally exhausted. They’ll go all shrill about whether or not Dermot Ahern was in the chamber blah blah blah but somebody needs to be making the argument — EVERY SINGLE DAY — that the “corrupt politicians” Brian Lenihan says are investigated at Dublin Castle are at the root of our crisis. Until Sean O’Rourke and Vincent Browne stop laughing at the claim that FG are any different, because FG sound like they actually believe they are.
7 Darren J. Prior // Jun 29, 2008 at 8:59 am
On top of being a nice guy and smart Enda Kenny is also tough.
However he is not an effective all round media performer- he is appalling on television most of the time- and he will never be voted in as Taoiseach.
If he was it would be a nightmare.
8 M // Jul 5, 2008 at 3:31 pm
I have full confidence that Enda Kenny will lead Fine Gael into power. FG went into the last election 50 seats short of FF, the biggest margin in their history. Howwever, Enda raised moral and expectations to such an extent that Fine Gael are genuinely disappointed not to have won an eelction where they were so far behind.
Kenny has done wonders for FG and he’s not finished yet. He was boudn to take a hit for backing the government on Lisbon but when the dust settles and people realise that this man is a true patrito who is ambitous for this country Fine Gael will rise again in the polls!
Only a few months ago FG were polling their highest ratings in thirty years under Kenny’s leadeership! FG are well poised in the mid twenties to capitalise in the local and european elections!
Writing off Enda Kenny is wishful thinking
9 Darren J. Prior // Jul 6, 2008 at 3:26 pm
He is too inconsistent.
10 JC Skinner // Aug 11, 2008 at 11:11 pm
Sorry to be contrary, but I find it difficult to recall a debate where Richard Bruton DIDN’T wipe the floor with Cowen.
Having said that, just because he’d be effortlessly more electable than Enda doesn’t mean he’s actually electable.
Coveney or Varadkar would offer potential electability. I still like the look of Deasy, but sadly FG don’t.
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