Economist Dermot O’Leary does his best to be cheerful over at Goodbody Stockbrokers, that we’re not in recession, yet. Technically you need two consecutive quarters of contraction, we’ve only had one. That’s the good news. The bad news is that because Easter came early this year the numbers are actually worse than they appear. And export growth, which was nudging up - has plateaued:
the major surprise in this quarter’s national accounts is the apparent halting of the upward trend in services exports. If this was to continue, exports may not be able to make the contribution to growth that we may have thought. Furthermore, risks to consumer spending forecasts remain on the downside. Our current forecast is for GDP growth of 1.1% (0.8% GNP), but given these trends it will be difficult for the economy to achieve any growth whatsover in 2008, and we will be making adjustments accordingly.
David McWilliams on Wednesday should be fun in the Indo. Will he continue in the “Don’t Panic” vein - while telling people this Irish downturn will be worse than the 1980s?
And are the banks really facing ‘meltdown’? I couldn’t agree more about the ‘financial coup’ stuff for obvious reasons, but, like, worse than a 2/3 cratering in shareprice for BoI? My schadenfreude doesn’t extend that far.
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1 Recent Links Tagged With "shareprice" - JabberTags // Oct 30, 2008 at 5:34 pm
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