For those of you following the American elections anywhere near as compulsively as I am - ***RTÉ/TV3/Newstalk PRODUCER/RESEARCHER ALERT*** here’s a website you’ll need to check regularly between now and November: FiveThirtyEight.com. It’s to 2008 what RealClearPolitics was to 2004. And makes the latter by comparison seem sad and amateurish.
Pollster.com has also been invaluable.
FiveThirtyEight is, by the way, the total number of Electoral Votes. 270 is the magic number to become president.
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3 responses so far ↓
1 Dan Sullivan // Jun 30, 2008 at 3:29 pm
I rather like http://www.270towin.com/ and of course http://www.electoral-vote.com/
And since I’m at it I enjoy the work of http://www.theoryspark.com/ I’ve managed a few times to get Edwards the nomination and just pipped Ron Paul to the White House!
2 EWI // Jun 30, 2008 at 8:43 pm
And makes the latter by comparison seem sad and amateurish.
I would have thought that RealClearPolitics does a bang-up job of that, all ny itself.
Want the motherlode of US political coverage? http://talkingpointsmemo.com
3 Richard // Jul 1, 2008 at 6:51 am
EWI,
I should have made clear - I’m talking about predictive value. RCP - love or loathe - was an innovator with the polling average, the problem is that they still make some claims at looking forward from the snapshot poll of polls. That it’s a good predictor. InTrade makes similar claims. Both are a good snapshot of collective CW of the moment.
The thing about 538 is that Nate - or before his cover was blown, aka Poblano - was taking demographic data and census data, plugging in a few other variables, and coming up with weirdly accurate (really freakishly accurate) predictions of outcomes in the primaries.
For analysis, TPM would be a top 3 starting point for me. RCP would be a place I’d check out late in the day to see if they’d spotted a story I’d missed.
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